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SISTEME SUPORT DE DECIZIE
1. BIBLIOGRAFIE
1. Turban E, Aronson J.E., Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Prentice Hall, 2001.
2. Marakas G.M., Decision Support Systems in the 21st Century, Second Edition, Prentice Hall, 2002.
3. Florin Filip, Sisteme suport pentru decizii, Editura Tehnica, 2004, 2007.
4. D. Oprea, F. Dumitru, G. Mesnita, Analiza sitemelor informatice, Ed. Univ. "Al. Ioan Cuza", Iasi, 2005
5. D. Oprea, F. Dumitru, G. Mesnita, Proiectarea sitemelor informatice, Ed. Univ. "Al. Ioan Cuza", Iasi, 2005
6. Bidgoli N., Intelligent management support systems, J. Viley & Sons, 1998.
7. Klein M. and Mathlieb, Knowledge based decision support systems: with applications in business, Addiso-Wesley Pub. Ltd., 1990.
8. Konig W., Krubel K., Mertens P., Pressmar D., Distributed information systems in business, Springer, 1996.
9. Osterle H., Fleisch E, Alt R., Business networking: shape enterprise relationship on the internet, Springer Verlag, 2000.
10. Ross D.C., Developing and using decision support applications, West Publishing Co., 1998.
11. Rowe A.J and Davies S. A, Intelligent information systems: meeting the chalange of knowledge era, Quorum Books, 1996.
12. L.Rusu si altii, Sisteme integrate si sisteme ERP, Risoprint, 2005
13. Target D., Analytical decission systems, Pitman, 1996.
14. Turban DE., Decision support systems and expert systems, McMillan, 1990.
15. D.Fotache, Groupware, Polirom, 2002
16. C. Brandas, Sisteme suport de decizie pentru managementul performant, Brumar, 2007.
17. Tacu A.P. si altii, Inteligfenta artificiala, Teorie si aplicatii in economie, Editura Economica, 1998
18. I.Andone si altii, Modelarea cunoasterii in organizatii
2. MODULE
1. Concepte de baza
2. Utilizarea SSD
3. Construirea SSD
4. Tehnologii de baza in SSD
5. Relatia SSD - ERP si Business Intelligence
6. Relatia SSD cu elemente de modelare si simulare
7. SSDG (Sisteme suport de decizie de grup) si Groupware
8. SSE (Sisteme Suport al Executivului)
9. Elemente referitoare la inteligenta artificiala aplicata SE, RN, AG, SH si relatia cu SSD
10. Sisteme distribuite, cooperative si colaborative
11. Impactul organizational al SSD
12. Sisteme suport pentru managementul intreprinderilor virtuale
13. Sisteme suport pentru managementul intreprinderilor inteligente
14. Directii de cercetare si dezvoltare in domeniu
Notarea:
50% teoria - 50% lucrari - conditia, cel putin 5 la ambele.
Teorie:
10% verificari neanuntate
20% partial
30% final, ambele cu cel putin 5
3. Concepte de baza
Sistem de asistare a deciziilor in transportul pachetelor mici[1] - Competitia B2B in ce priveste pachetele mici, UPS - zeci de firme mici - Federal Expres (RPS) Roadway Package System, operational martie 1985 (2-a companie). Probleme:
datele interne si externe
DSS de la SAS Institute Inc. in 10 ani: 3 HUB& 36 terminale → 21 HUB peste 300 terminale. DSS in 3 domenii:
An Information System (IS) is the system of persons, data records and activities that process the data and information in a given organization, including manual processes or automated processes. Usually the term is used erroneously as a synonymous for computer-based information systems, which is only the Information technologies component of an Information System. The computer-based information systems are the field of study for Information technologies (IT); however these should hardly be treated apart from the bigger Information System that is always involved in.
Subsistem
contabil Subsistem Personal Subsistem
Productie
. .
Sistemul informational al firmei (piramida lui Adams)
DSS/EIS - informatii pentru managementul firmei
Pentru clienti - traseul pachetelor (DHL)
Informatii pentru intelegerea pietei, competitivitate pe preturi, calitate, promptitudine, serviciu clienti etc.
10 - Roluri ale managerilor (Mitzberg1980):
1. Reprezentare - legala si sociala
2. Leader - motivare, activare, gestiune umana, training, etc.
3. Legatura cu exteriorul - oportunitati, informatii
4. Monitorizarea informatiilor interne-externe
5. Diseminator - factuale, interpretate, integrate
6. Purtator de cuvant - politici, actiuni, rezultate, etc.
7. Antreprenor decizional - cauta oportunitati proiecte: supervizeaza si conduce proiecte
8. Aplanarea perturbarilor
9. Alocarea resurselor
10. Negociator
Rolul informatiilor
Robert Heller "Managerii au nevoie de informatie ca alcoolicii de bautura. Consuma cantitati enorme , cer din ce in ce mai mult, dar au mari dificultati in a digera pe cele ingerate"
David Bayond "Informatia face oamenii capabili da-si planifice, controleze si monitorizeze organizatia lor, indiferent de dimensiune si profil; asa cum masina are nevoie de electricitate ca sa functioneze, asa are nevoie managerul de informatii".
Peter Pruker "Managerul n u va obtine niciodata toate informatiile de care are nevoie pentru a conduce. Majoritatea deciziilor sale se bazeaza pe informatii incomplete, pe de o parte, datorita faptului ca informatia nu este intotdeauna accesibila, pe de alta parte, ea costa prea mult. Nimic nu este mai periculos si mai uzual ca si credinta ca se pot lua decizii pe baza unor informatii necorespunzatoare".
T. Lucey "fara o filtrare eficienta si o agreegare a datelor, un manager poate fi bogat in date. dar sarac in informatii"
4. Deciziile manageriale & IS
Productivitatea = masura iesirilor unui proces / unitate de intrare; de exemplu in procesele de munca: rata iesirilor / ora lucrata
Relati dintre productivitate si managementul: planificare, organizare, directionare, control.
Relatia dintre managerul si decizia.
Arta managementului - trial and error: creativitate, judecata, intuitie, experienta.
Modificari rapide in mediu:
Factor |
Tendinta |
Rezultat |
Tehnologie Informatie/calculatoare |
Creste Creste |
Alegerea mai multor atletrnative |
Complexitate structurala Competitie |
Creste Creste |
Costuri mai mari la erorile de marketing |
Marketing international Stabilitate politica Consumerism Interventia guvernamentala |
Creste Scadere Creste Creste |
Mai multa incertitudine legata de viitor |
Schimbari, fluctuatii |
Creste |
Decizii rapide |
Motive de ingreunare a deciziei:
alternative
costul erorilor
mediul incert
viteza
5. Decizia si calculatorul
Trecerea de la aplicatii clasice la cele manageriale.
Componente esentiale: acces la date, analiza multidimensionala, Internet, Intranet, Data Mining etc. - suport decizional.
DEC - 1991 (320 manageri de varf)
9 din 10 integrarea calculatoarelor - succes
98% - managerii de varf trebuie sa inteleaga calculatoarele si impactul in afaceri
81% - reteaua este esentiala pentru tranzactii internationale
88% - creste comunicarea
87% - micsoreaza timpul de realizare a productiei.
7. Cerinte fata de tehnologie
Resurse:
Viteza de calcul
Productivitate - gruparea si distribuirea specialistilor
Suport tehnic - reducerea si distribuirea grupurilor
Asistarea calitatii: alternative, analize rapide, imaginile expertilor, simulare, scenarii.
Competitivitate - inginerie si reinginerie. Competitia: bani, calitate, promptitudine, personalizarea produselor, suport pentru clienti.
Depasirea limitelor cognitive.
Tehnologii (instrumente) pentru asistarea deciziilor:
DSS
GSS
EIS
EAS (Entreprize Application Software)
o ERP - Entreprze Resource Planing
o SCM - Supply Chain Management
o CRM- Customer Resource Management
o SRM - Suplier Relationship Management
o PLM - Product Life Cycle Management
o BIW - Business Intelligence & Warehousing
KM - Knowledge Management
ES
ANN (Artificial Neural Net)
Agenti inteligenti
Hibride IIS
IDSS - Intelligent DSS.
6. DSS
Decizie - Wikipedia
A decision is a final product of the specific mental/cognitive process of an individual or a group of persons/organizations which is called decision making, therefore it is a subjective concept. It is a mental object and can be an opinion, a rule or a task for execution/application.
More precisely speaking, a mental object D is a decision if it was obtained by a conscious choice of only one opinion or one action (from a known set called alternatives) and it is designated for an application.
[Filip04] Decizia - rezultatul unor activitati constiente de alegere a unei directii de actiune si angajarea in actiune pe acea directie prin alocarea in acest sens a unor resurse in vederea atingerii unor obiective.
Decident
Persoana/persoanele care iau decizii.
DECISION MAKER (http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/ASC/DECISI_MAKER.html)
A decision maker is a person, or group of people (e.g., a committee), who makes the final choice among the alternatives.
[Wikipedia]
Decision making is the cognitive process of selecting a course of action from among multiple alternatives. Every decision-making process produces a final choice. It can be an action or an opinion. It begins when we need to do something but we do not know what. Therefore decision-making is a reasoning process which can be rational or irrational, and can be based on explicit assumptions or tacit assumptions.
Common examples include shopping, deciding what to eat, and deciding whom or what to vote for in an election or referendum.
Structured rational decision making is an important part of all science-based professions, where specialists apply their knowledge in a given area to making informed decisions. For example, medical decision making often involves making a diagnosis and selecting an appropriate treatment.
Due to the large number of considerations involved in many decisions, decision support systems have been developed to assist decision makers in considering the implications of various courses of action. They can help reduce the risk of human errors. The systems which try to realize some human/cognitive decision making functions are called Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS).
[Turban] Decision Making = Actiunea de selectare intre alternative.
Situatii decizionale - aparitia unor stimuli care presupun o reactie (decizie).
Proces decizional - lant de activitati decizionale.
Istoric
o managerii nu utilizeaza stiinta managementului;
o sistem robust, elastic, interfata, complet, prelucrari date, & proceduri robuste.
1964 - Michael Scott-Morton, defineste prima data DSS, la un seminar doctoral, 1964
1971 - Gorry & Scott-Morton - DSS - rezolvarea unor probleme nestructurate si semistructurate.
1980 s-au dezvoltat - Gorry & Scott Morton, 1989 " A Framework of Management Information Systems". - Framework prezentat - a definit conceptul DSS si a dat cadrul bidimensional cunoscut sub denumirea de Gorry & Scott Mortons's Framework:
o pe orizontala - nivelele de management (Anthony 1965): operational, control managerial, planificare strategica
o pe verticala - nivelul de structurare deciziei (Simon 1960).
[Turban]
Taxonomia Simon:
probleme structurate - solutia optima, obiective definite clar (minimizare costuri, maximizare profit) - se rezolva prin functionari, DP sau, stiinta managementului.
nestructurate - pe intuitie umana, DSS, EIS, KM (Knowledge Management Systems), IDSSS - Intelligent DSS, exemple: planificare de noi servicii, cautare de personale executiv, cercetare-dezvoltare, etc.
semi-structurate - structurate / nestructurate, metode bazate pe inteligenta dar si solutii standard (Keen & Scott-Morton, 1978): negocieri, analiza achizitiei de capitale, etc. - metodele DSS pot ajuta managerul la intelegerea problemei.
Taxonomia Anthony - activitatile manageriale:
planificarea strategica - alocarea resurselor & activitatile pe termen lung;
control managerial - achizitia si utilizarea eficienta a resurselor pentru asigurarea scopurilor organizatiei;
control operational - executarea eficienta si efectiva a sarcinilor.
Pe linii si coloane se indica tehnologiile aferente.
Operatii structurate (1,2,4) - manageri de nivel inferior, (6,8,9) - executiv.
Numeroase extensii, de exemplu: Murphy (1993) a extins cadru adaugand: noutatea si specificitatea ca dimensiuni.
[Markras]
Extensii - sisteme conventionale, bazate pe cunostinte, SE, EIS, GDSS, Data visualization Systems, Organization Support Systems.
[1] 'Keeping an eye on the Road Ahead', SAS Communications, SAS Institute Inc., Second Quarter, 1994, www.shiprps.com, ian. 2000, [Turban2001]